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Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 14:41:41 -0700 (PDT)
From: j.kaminski@enron.com
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Subject: FW: Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Jul 31, 2001
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 -----Original Message-----
From: =09tradersummary@syncrasy.com@ENRON [mailto:IMCEANOTES-tradersummary+=
40syncrasy+2Ecom+40ENRON@ENRON.com]=20
Sent:=09Tuesday, July 31, 2001 9:19 AM
To:=09vkamins@ect.enron.com
Subject:=09Syncrasy Daily Trader Summary for Tue, Jul 31, 2001

=20
[IMAGE]=09


[IMAGE] [IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE][IMAGE]        Syncrasy, =
LLC?   713.228.8470 Off  713.228.4147 Fax   909 Texas Avenue  Suite 1314  H=
ouston, TX 77002         www.syncrasy.com          Sales:  713.228.4407   D=
evelopment Offices:  970.247.4139 Off  970.247.7951 Fax   835 Main Avenue  =
Suite 221  Durango, CO 81301      =09  =09 [IMAGE]    Complementary version=
 of Trader Summary  from Syncrasy, LLC and APB Energy Inc.    - If you woul=
d like to receive this product early in the morning       please call Syncr=
asy at 713 228 4407 for more information       or send an email to subscrib=
e_TraderSummary@syncrasy.com     - If you would like to be added to this da=
ily email list       please send an email to TraderSummaryemail@syncrasy.co=
m     - If you would like to be removed from this daily email       please =
reply to this email with the words "CANCEL" or send an email to cancel_trad=
ersummary@syncrasy.com       Data last updated: Tuesday, Jul 31, 2001 at 08=
:50AM ET    Commentary last updated: Tuesday, Jul 31, 2001 at 09:51AM ET  M=
eteorologist: Andy Weingarten... APB Energy / True Quote    Click here for =
a definition of 'Average-Daily Maximum Temperature'     Today: Tuesday, Jul=
y 31, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE]=
[IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMA=
GE]   ECAR(CTR) 88 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 +1 FRCC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 80 -1 MAIN(CT=
R) 93 NC MAPP(HP) 89 +2 NPCC(NE) 80 NC SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 96 +2 WSCC(NW=
) 73 -1 WSCC(RK) 80 +1 WSCC(SW) 83 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] =
[IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 86 83 77 70 80 84 95 82 Max 92 8=
7 81 77 84 89 98 85 Min 78 78 69 64 75 80 91 78 Range 14 9 12 13 9 9 7 7 St=
D-P 3.5 2.8 3.5 5.2 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.4 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10    Day 1-=
5 Discussion:  *** Tropical system is very much up in the air. A trough is =
in the air for the West. Plenty of heat and humidity is in the air for the =
East.***  The tropical wave in the Caribbean near Hispaniola does not look =
as organized as it did yesterday. This will result in a delay of naming it =
a storm with the distinct possibility it never develops. Most of the models=
 do bring a system into the Southern Gulf by Thursday, but interaction with=
 Cuba tomorrow may keep it very weak. Steering currents favor this moving t=
owards Mexico by Sunday. The rest of the tropics remain eerily quiet.  Ther=
e is plenty of weather news for the continental U.S. in the short term and =
it centers around the Plains heat ridge. It is flexing NE once again with t=
he rest of this week looking quite hot from the Plains to the Ohio Valley. =
La! te in the week, the Great Lakes and NE get in on this for a day or two,=
 but there is still a weakening Canadian influence on those areas. Another =
front should drop from the Lakes towards the Mid-Atlantic Thursday and Frid=
ay. The NW flow does not look particularly impressive, so the cooling looks=
 moderate at best. We still look to be absent of widespread 100 degree heat=
 outside the Plains, but plenty of 90's and humidity will bring 100+ aftern=
oon heat indices. There is still very little of note going on in the Wester=
n U.S. The hydro situation in the NW remains, but temperatures in most of t=
he region are at or slightly below seasonal norms.   Tomorrow: Wednesday, A=
ugust  1, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IM=
AGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   =
[IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 90 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 NC FRCC(SE) 88 +1 MAAC(NE) 85 NC MAI=
N(CTR) 90 +1 MAPP(HP) 80 +1 NPCC(NE) 84 NC SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 94 +1 WSC=
C(NW) 79 -1 WSCC(RK) 82 -1 WSCC(SW) 85 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMA=
GE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 83 82 78 74 80 84 95 84 Max =
91 88 85 80 85 89 98 87 Min 74 78 70 67 77 79 90 80 Range 17 10 15 13 8 10 =
8 7 StD-P 3.8 2.3 4.6 4.3 2.5 2.9 2.8 2.1 Count 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 10   D=
ay 3: Thursday, August  2, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatil=
ity Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on ima=
ge to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 86 -1 ERCOT(SP) 96 +1 FRCC(SE) 87 NC M=
AAC(NE) 86 -1 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 81 NC NPCC(NE) 86 +1 SERC(SE) 90 NC =
SPP(SP) 94 +3 WSCC(NW) 80 +3 WSCC(RK) 85 -1 WSCC(SW) 88 +1     Range Standa=
rd Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 84 78 75=
 82 82 94 86 Max 84 93 88 80 85 89 97 88 Min 75 78 69 71 73 78 90 84 Range =
9 15 19 9 12 11 7 4 StD-P 3.5 3.2 5.3 3.2 3.4 3.2 2.5 1.4 Count 8 8 8 8 8 8=
 8 8   Day 4: Friday, August  3, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   V=
olatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click =
on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 95 +1 FRCC(SE) 8=
7 -1 MAAC(NE) 84 -1 MAIN(CTR) 85 NC MAPP(HP) 86 +1 NPCC(NE) 81 NC SERC(SE) =
91 NC SPP(SP) 94 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 +4 WSCC(RK) 87 +3 WSCC(SW) 87 +1     Range =
Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 79 87=
 74 74 83 82 92 85 Max 85 90 82 79 87 90 95 87 Min 75 82 70 69 80 78 89 83 =
Range 10 8 12 10 7 12 6 4 StD-P 2.9 2.8 3.6 3.5 2.2 2.9 2.2 1.6 Count 6 6 6=
 6 6 6 6 6   Day 5: Saturday, August  4, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta T=
emp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE] =
 (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 85 NC ERCOT(SP) 96 +2 FR=
CC(SE) 89 NC MAAC(NE) 83 -1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +2 MAPP(HP) 88 +4 NPCC(NE) 80 -1 S=
ERC(SE) 90 -1 SPP(SP) 93 +1 WSCC(NW) 79 +5 WSCC(RK) 86 +4 WSCC(SW) 86 +1   =
  Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Me=
an 81 87 73 74 82 83 92 84 Max 86 92 81 83 85 90 96 88 Min 77 82 68 67 78 7=
9 89 81 Range 9 10 13 16 7 11 7 7 StD-P 2.9 3.2 3.7 4.9 2.8 2.7 2.0 2.2 Cou=
nt 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6    Day 6-10 Discussion:  All of the models point to a ve=
ry warm period for the 6-10 day outlook (and likely beyond). The early stag=
es of my predicted warmer than normal August appear to be setting up as pla=
nned. What seems to be in disagreement is where the hottest air sets up. It=
 has been the Plains primarily this summer. The most recent runs of the Eur=
opean and Navy models suggest that the hottest air especially relative to n=
ormal shifts to the Lakes and NE as a monster of a ridge forms in the area.=
 The Canadian and MRF models look more like a flat broad ridge East of the =
Rockies which keeps the heat core West of the Mississippi. If any of these =
verify close to reality, most all of the Eastern 3/4 of the country will be=
 above normal anyway, but I like the large ridge idea, the European seems o=
verdone. The pattern continues to be favorable for t! ropical activity, but=
 something out in the tropics has to get cranked up first. The last couple =
of years, most tropical activity has been recurved NE away from the U.S. du=
e to a trough in the Atlantic. It currently is no where to be found, but at=
 the moment, neither is the tropical activity.  Day 6: Sunday, August  5, 2=
001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]=
  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   E=
CAR(CTR) 85 +1 ERCOT(SP) 95 +1 FRCC(SE) 90 NC MAAC(NE) 84 +1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +=
1 MAPP(HP) 87 +6 NPCC(NE) 80 NC SERC(SE) 90 +1 SPP(SP) 93 NC WSCC(NW) 79 NC=
 WSCC(RK) 87 +4 WSCC(SW) 85 -1     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]=
   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 81 87 72 75 85 83 92 84 Max 86 90 82 86=
 87 90 95 90 Min 78 83 67 69 82 79 88 80 Range 8 7 15 17 5 11 7 10 StD-P 2.=
1 2.1 3.9 6.3 2.0 2.9 2.4 3.0 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 7: Monday, August=
  6, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    [IMAGE][=
IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)   [IMAG=
E]   ECAR(CTR) 84 NC ERCOT(SP) 93 -1 FRCC(SE) 90 -1 MAAC(NE) 85 +1 MAIN(CTR=
) 85 +1 MAPP(HP) 86 +4 NPCC(NE) 81 -1 SERC(SE) 89 NC SPP(SP) 91 -1 WSCC(NW)=
 79 -3 WSCC(RK) 86 +1 WSCC(SW) 86 NC     Range Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [=
IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 80 88 72 74 83 82 89 84 Max 85 89=
 82 87 87 89 93 92 Min 76 84 68 66 80 78 83 81 Range 9 5 14 21 7 11 10 11 S=
tD-P 2.1 1.3 3.9 7.4 2.3 3.2 4.4 3.7 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day 8: Tuesday=
, August  7, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatility Matrix    =
[IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on image to enlarge)=
   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 86 +9 ERCOT(SP) 92 +8 FRCC(SE) 90 +10 MAAC(NE) 86 +1=
1 MAIN(CTR) 86 +7 MAPP(HP) 86 +8 NPCC(NE) 82 +10 SERC(SE) 90 +10 SPP(SP) 91=
 +5 WSCC(NW) 81 +7 WSCC(RK) 85 +5 WSCC(SW) 86 +3     Range Standard Deviati=
on [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 83 87 76 74 82 82 89 =
84 Max 86 88 84 84 85 90 94 89 Min 81 85 70 68 79 79 82 81 Range 5 3 14 16 =
6 11 12 8 StD-P 1.3 1.0 3.1 6.8 1.4 3.0 5.2 2.9 Count 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5   Day=
 9: Wednesday, August  8, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   Volatili=
ty Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click on imag=
e to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 80 +4 ERCOT(SP) 79 -6 FRCC(SE) 80 -1 MA=
AC(NE) 78 +2 MAIN(CTR) 82 +5 MAPP(HP) 86 +7 NPCC(NE) 73 +2 SERC(SE) 79 -1 S=
PP(SP) 84 +2 WSCC(NW) 70 +2 WSCC(RK) 80 -1 WSCC(SW) 81 -2     Range Standar=
d Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 82 86 74 73 =
80 81 87 84 Max 83 86 75 81 80 82 95 89 Min 81 86 73 70 79 79 80 81 Range 2=
 0 2 11 1 3 15 8 StD-P 0.3 0.1 0.8 3.9 0.4 1.1 6.6 2.8 Count 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 =
4   Day 10: Thursday, August  9, 2001   Syncrasy's Choice:  Delta Temp.   V=
olatility Matrix    [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  [IMAGE][IMAGE]  (Click =
on image to enlarge)   [IMAGE]   ECAR(CTR) 81 +7 ERCOT(SP) 80 -5 FRCC(SE) 8=
1 -1 MAAC(NE) 80 +7 MAIN(CTR) 81 +5 MAPP(HP) 85 +5 NPCC(NE) 74 +10 SERC(SE)=
 81 +1 SPP(SP) 82 NC WSCC(NW) 74 +4 WSCC(RK) 80 +1 WSCC(SW) 80 -3     Range=
 Standard Deviation [IMAGE] [IMAGE]   Reg CT HP NE NW RK SE SP SW Mean 76 7=
7 73 65 71 78 80 73 Max 82 85 76 74 80 80 80 80 Min 70 70 69 55 59 75 79 65=
 Range 12 15 7 19 21 5 1 15 StD-P 5.5 7.2 3.4 8.6 9.3 2.4 0.8 6.7 Count 4 4=
 4 4 4 4 4 4    Trader Summary is designed around and formatted for the  [I=
MAGE]Plasma displays, RainbowWall? and DataWall?   Trader Summary can also =
be viewed from www.syncrasy.com  or     www.apbenergy.com  or  www.truequot=
e.com     [IMAGE]  =09
=09=09=09
